2019 Oscar Predictions

It’s crunch time. Time for me to put my meagre reputation on the line and make a half-informed series of guesses at a number of the Academy Award nominations. Last year I got five right out of the eight I guessed but that was a year with a much more predictable climate. The BAFTAS and Golden Globes were more consistent and there were better movies nominated. So this could well be a disaster for me but shy bairns get nowt. I mean obviously, in this context I also get nowt for being right. Let’s begin.

Best Animated Feature

What should win: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse. It’s honestly quite offensive that they bothered to nominate anything else. It’s only because the academy doesn’t respect animation that it’s not a Best Picture nom.

What will win: Spiderverse. See above.

Best Film editing

What should win: The Favourite. This isn’t much of an endorsement of The Favourite, it’s more that I just don’t remember any of the other nominees doing anything particularly interesting with its editing.

What will win: The Favourite. I’m not hugely sure. Vice won the BAFTA but I couldn’t really say I understand why. Because its frenetic? Gonna go out on a limb here.

Best Writing

What should win: Green Book. I just really ruddy liked it. It handled complex ideas in a simple and familiar way. I get it’s heavy handed but it interested me a lot more than any of its competition.

What will win: The Favourite. I basically reckon this film is gonna sweep a lot of these type of awards. It got the BAFTA for screenplay so I’m fairly confident.

Best Director

Who should win: Alfonso Cuarón. I found Roma incredibly dull but I can’t deny it’s shot and directed masterfully.

Who will win:  Alfonso Cuarón. Man. These are more interesting when should and will are different ain’t they? Again, I just think none of the other noms were particularly impressive or interesting. The only real competition is Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite but I reckon Alfonso has the pedigree (and a BAFTA and Golden Globe) to edge him out.

Best Cinematography

What should win: Roma. As much as the Academy wants to tell is that the literal film part of a film is dull and should be awarded during an ad break, I’m not buying it.

What will win: Roma. It certainly has nothing to fear from A Star is Born. Again The Favourite, with its weird fisheye lenses, is a looming threat but I believe the slow pans, wide there-and-back-again shots and black and white will get academy members all hot under the collar.

Best Supporting Actress

Who should win: Olivia Coleman. I know she’s not nominated for this category I remain baffled why she’s nominated for leading actress. Don’t get me wrong, she’s fantastic and deserves the Oscar but she’s literally not the lead. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are.

Who will win: Rachel Weisz. This is really tricky. I’m basically leaning on the fact she won the BAFTA which is a more legitimate award than Regina King’s Golden Globe (no offence to King, but the GGs have always been a joke). Amy Adams is certainly reliably brilliant but I just think it’s gonna be a Favourite lottery for the acting awards.

Best Supporting Actor

Who should win: Mahershala Ali. Like I say, I stand by that Green Book and Ali had the hardest job to do. I loved Richard E. Grant so he’d be my second pick.

Who Will win: Mahershala Ali. He’s a bit of an Oscar darling of late. This is one of the few categories where I think everyone nominated deserves it. But ultimately, all Sam Elliot had to do was not play a cowboy and Adam Driver’s only there because his character was fun. Sam Rockwell deserves every award for everything but today I’m backing my boy Mahershala (God I wish his name was shorter).

Best Leading Actor

Who should win: Viggo Mortenson. Hey man, for someone who’s as big a fan of Lord of the Rings as I am, it takes a lot to make me briefly forget that you were Aragorn.

Who will win: Christian Bale. This is another of my long shots. Rami Malik has both the BAFTA and the Golden Globe so honestly, he’s the favourite (not that one). But Bohemian Rhapsody was so awful I’m just going to say the snobbery of the Academy will hand Bale the statue for being in a film that was at leat OK.

Best Leading Actress

Who should win: Emma Stone/Rachel Weisz. I’ve been through this.

Who will win: Olivia Coleman. I’m as confident in this as I was that Three Billboards would win last year. Just because I was wrong that time doesn’t mean I’ve learned to exercise caution. It’s gonna be so fun to watch Sophie from Peep Show stammer her way through an Oscar acceptance speech.

Best Picture

What should win: Black Panther. Do you know what? I’d be elated if this happened. To see the Academy turn its back on everything it has traditionally valued in a desperate attempt to claw onto relevance would be delicious. It’s the only one I’ve seen more than once. People love it. It represents something huge for Hollywood. It’s the one film nominated that is about black people that doesn’t feature prejudice/slavery as a central theme, and instead just concentrates on creating a superman for the black children cheering in the audience.

What will win: The Favourite. I’m honestly just banking on the Academy not wanting to acknowledge Netflix as a legitimate film distributor out of fear.