2018 Oscar predictions

I’m not a betting man. I’m not willing to stake actual money, which is worth something, on my hunches. I am, however, willing to stake my reputation, which is worth nothing, on them. These predictions are based on the awards season so far, the Academy’s historical preferences and last and probably least, the films themselves. I’ll only mention categories where I’ve seen at least four of the nominees. I won’t be talking about categories about which I know nothing (eg. costume design). That’s housekeeping done, let’s get into it.

Best actor

Who should win: Gary Oldman. He’s the only one who truly transformed for me, he had a lot of makeup to fight through and the fact he didn’t come across as a screaming idiot is an achievement in itself. He’s also won in every other ceremony.

Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis. This is a long shot. The academy has always had a love affair with DDL, though, and he has said it’s his last film so I’m going against the consensus here.

Best actress

Who should win: Frances McDormand. Until I saw Three Billboards I would have advised giving it to Streep again but McDormand is flawless in this.

Who will win: Frances McDormand. I think this is a pretty safe bet. She won at the Golden Globes and BAFTAS and I don’t see the Academy deviating for any reason.

Supporting actor

Who should win: Sam Rockwell. Again I’m riding the Three Billboards train.

Who will win: Sam Rockwell. Ditto from Frances McDormand

Supporting actress

Who should win: Laurie Metcalf. She absolutely shines in Lady Bird being both endearing and heartbreaking. She feels like a genuine mother rather than a cartoon character.

Who will win: Allison Janney. Speaking of cartoon characters. While I didn’t think a huge amount of the performance it does appear like Hollywood does. She’s won everything thus far so looks like it’s gonna be a sweep.

Animated film

What should and will win: Coco. The academy has always loved Pixar. While there’s nothing really wrong with Ferdinand or The Boss Baby, they’re not even half as innovative from an animation or story standpoint.


What should win: Bladerunner 2049. I don’t know if I’ve seen a more beautiful film produced this century.

What will win: The Shape of Water. The academy doesn’t like sci-fi and they don’t like sequels. They do like Guillermo del Toro though.

Best director

Who should win: Jordan Peele. Comedy and horror in his first film which also includes a highly relevant sub-text. Outstanding.

Who will win: Guillermo del Toro. He’s on an awards roll and he’s got the prestige the Academy gets off on. All but a shoe-in.

Best Picture

What should win: Get out. It won’t though.

What will win: Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri. It’s swept the other awards. It has the best cast. And it’s a fantastic fantastic film.

So there we have it. I look forward to being wrong about most or all of these on Sunday night. But if Baby Driver doesn’t win best sound editing, we riot.